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| #4172 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:27 PM 10.Aug.2004) TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022004 0300Z WED AUG 11 2004 AT 10 PM CDT...0300 GMT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST FLORIDA FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANEE RIVER. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 90.4W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 90.4W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 90.5W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.0N 90.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.6N 89.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.8N 86.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 32.5N 83.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 42.0N 75.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 90.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z FORECASTER LAWRENCE |
