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| #4175 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:32 PM 10.Aug.2004) TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032004 0300Z WED AUG 11 2004 AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD INCLUDING PORT-AU-PRINCE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 72.8W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 0SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 100SE 50SW 175NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 72.8W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 71.8W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 17.1N 75.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 18.8N 78.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.7N 81.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.9N 82.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.5N 83.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 31.0N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 37.5N 77.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 72.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN |
