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| #4204 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:02 AM 11.Aug.2004) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004 LATEST RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS INDICATE THAT BONNIE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. THE PRESSURE WAS DOWN A BIT...1001 MB...AND THE PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 44 KT. A DROPSONDE REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 41 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 40 KT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS BUT HAS BEEN INCREASING MARKEDLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...AND THE AIRCRAFT CREW REPORTED THAT BONNIE HAS A PARTIAL EYEWALL AGAIN. BONNIE WILL BE PASSING OVER VERY WARM WATER AND HAS ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO UNDER LIGHT SHEAR CONDITIONS...SO THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT QUITE A BIT LESS THAN THE GFDL WHICH CONTINUES TO MAKE BONNIE A HURRICANE. AS BONNIE APPROACHES THE COASTLINE...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 000/4. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR SYNOPTIC REASONING. DATA FROM THE G-IV JET MISSION LAST NIGHT SHOW MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS ABOUT TO SCOOP BONNIE UP. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THAT SHOULD TAKE BONNIE TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITHIN 30-36 HOURS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 25.5N 90.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 26.7N 89.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 28.6N 88.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 31.0N 85.0W 35 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 13/0600Z 34.0N 81.5W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 14/0600Z 43.0N 72.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 15/0600Z...ABSORBED |
