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| #42207 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 PM 26.Aug.2005) TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005 ...STUBBORN KATRINA CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...EXPECTED TO BECOME AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA BAY AND FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM KEY LARGO SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO KEY WEST INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 115 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW EAST OF CAPE SABLE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...THOUGH ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...24.6 N... 83.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA |
