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| #42846 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:22 AM 29.Aug.2005) TCDAT2 HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005 THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA IS MAKING ITS SECOND NORTHERN GULF COAST LANDFALL...NEAR THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER. WSR-88D RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE NORTHERN EYEWALL IS VERY INTENSE AND DOPPLER VELOCITIES ARE NEAR 120 KT AT AN ALTITUDE OF ABOUT 5000 FT OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS...ALONG WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 110 KT. STEADY WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND. HOWEVER KATRINA HAS SUCH A LARGE AND POWERFUL CIRCULATION THAT IT WILL PROBABLY RETAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS...BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS WELL INLAND. THE POTENTIAL LOSS OF LIFE DUE TO FALLING TREES IS A MAJOR CONCERN...AS IS FRESHWATER FLOODING. THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY AND INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/14. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED. KATRINA SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW BETWEEN A CYCLONE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AND ITS IDENTITY... LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MERGES WITH A MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE. SPECIAL THANKS ARE EXTENDED TO THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER CREWS STATIONED AT KEESLER AIR FORCE BASE IN BILOXI MISSISSIPPI...WHO HAVE BEEN FLYING CONTINUOUS MISSIONS THROUGH KATRINA EVEN AS THEIR FAMILIES AND HOMES ARE BEING SERIOUSLY IMPACTED BY THIS HURRICANE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 30.2N 89.6W 110 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 32.3N 89.3W 65 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 30/1200Z 35.4N 88.3W 40 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 31/0000Z 39.0N 86.0W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 31/1200Z 42.0N 82.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 01/1200Z 47.5N 72.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 02/1200Z 51.5N 67.0W 20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 03/1200Z...ABSORBED |
