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| #4336 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:46 PM 11.Aug.2004) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004 ...HURRICANE CHARLEY HEADING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA... MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THIS WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING TONIGHT. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM DRY TORTUGAS TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES ...400 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN OR 140 MILES...220 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. RAIN BANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF JAMAICA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EARLY THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IN CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE HURRICANE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COASTS OF JAMAICA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH CHARLEY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...17.2 N... 78.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA |
