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| #43448 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 31.Aug.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2005 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH LEE HAS BECOME MUCH LESS ORGANIZED. IN FACT...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION EXISTS...BUT IN THE INTEREST OF CONTINUITY WE WILL ASSUME A CENTER STILL EXISTS UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THIS CONVECTION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELONGATED AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A NEW AND EXPOSED CIRCULATION CENTER. BASED ON THE DEGREDATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN...LEE IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. GIVEN THE TREND IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE APPARENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...AND AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...THE FORECAST HOLDS THE INTENSITY AT 30 KT THROUGH 36 HOURS AND DISSIPATES LEE AFTER 72 HOURS. IF THE SATELLITE PATTERN DOES NOT IMPROVE SHORTLY...THIS FORECAST COULD BE GENEROUS. LEE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A MUCH LARGER DEEP-LAYER LOW LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST. ACCORDINGLY...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND THE CURRENT MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 025/09. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE DEEP-LAYER LOW DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS THEN SLOW AND TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. IN FACT...THE GFS STALLS THE DEPRESSION BEYOND 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 31.2N 49.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 32.2N 48.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 02/0000Z 33.0N 48.4W 30 KT 36HR VT 02/1200Z 33.8N 48.4W 30 KT 48HR VT 03/0000Z 34.5N 48.7W 25 KT 72HR VT 04/0000Z 35.5N 49.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED |
