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| #43525 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 01.Sep.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 01 2005 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE IS LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME BASED PRIMARILY ON A 31-KNOT WIND OBSERVATION FORM THE SHIP ELTZ7 AT 12Z. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS NEAR AN UPPER LOW. THE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND THE OCEAN IS NOT COOL. THEREFORE...SOME CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 3 KNOTS AND THEN NORTHWARD AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE DEPRESSION. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 31.9N 51.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 32.3N 51.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 02/1200Z 33.5N 52.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 03/0000Z 34.5N 52.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 03/1200Z 36.1N 52.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED |
