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| #4356 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 PM 11.Aug.2004) TCMAT3 HURRICANE CHARLEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032004 0300Z THU AUG 12 2004 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA... MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THIS WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING EARLY THURSDAY. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM DRY TORTUGAS TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA EARLY THURSDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 78.7W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 75SE 30SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 100SE 50SW 175NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 78.7W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 78.2W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 19.6N 80.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 30SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.5N 82.3W...NEARING CUBA MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.5N 82.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 29.5N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 38.0N 77.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 46.5N 68.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 51.5N 53.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 78.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z FORECASTER AVILA |
