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| #43584 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:28 PM 01.Sep.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 01 2005 THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CAUSING THE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD PLACE THE DEPRESSION UNDER A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS SHEAR. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SPLIT IN FORECAST INTENSITIES... WITH ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS EXCEPT THE UKMET MODEL DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM IN 48-72 HOURS...WHILE THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE FORECAST INTENSITY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY SLOW STRENGTHENING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS A VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10...SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER LOW REMAINS NEAR 65W BETWEEN BERMUDA AND PUERTO RICO. DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE CHANGE IN THE INITIAL MOTION...THE TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND REMAINS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE THROUGH 48 HOURS. BEYOND THIS TIME...THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A GENERAL MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 19.6N 46.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 20.3N 48.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 21.3N 49.7W 35 KT 36HR VT 03/0600Z 22.5N 51.4W 40 KT 48HR VT 03/1800Z 23.7N 52.9W 45 KT 72HR VT 04/1800Z 26.5N 55.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 05/1800Z 29.5N 57.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 06/1800Z 33.0N 58.0W 55 KT |
