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| #4367 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 AM 12.Aug.2004) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004 ...CHARLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA... MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THIS WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING EARLY THURSDAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM DRY TORTUGAS TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM FLAMINGO TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA EARLY THURSDAY. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES ...265 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...23 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING. OUTER RAIN BANDS OF CHARLEY ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAIN BANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF JAMAICA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT CHARLEY HAS STRENGTHENED...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 85 MPH...135 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA OVERNIGHT...AND ARE EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH CHARLEY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...18.0 N... 79.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
