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| #43690 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 02.Sep.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2005 THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE BUT A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER. CONSEQUENTLY...T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES INCREASED TO 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. IN ADDITION...LATEST QUICKSCAT SHOWS A CIRCULATION BETTER DEFINED THAN YESTERDAY WITH SEVERAL 35-KNOT UNCONTAMINATED WIND VECTORS...AND A COUPLE PEAKING AT 45 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEN INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS. THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM MARIA...THE 13TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE UPPER-LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED TO ITS SOUTH...RESULTING IN LIGHTER SHEAR NEAR MARIA. SHIPS MODEL MAKES MARIA A HURRICANE BUT SINCE EVERY OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFDL...WEAKENS IT...ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST...GIVING A LOT OF WEIGHT TO THE GFDL AND THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...BUT IT SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IN BETWEEN A BUILDING HIGH TO THE EAST AND A BROAD TROUGH ALONG 65W. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A TIGHTLY- PACKED ENVELOPE OF NORTHWEST AND NORTHERLY TRACKS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 21.3N 50.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 22.2N 51.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 03/1200Z 24.0N 53.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 04/0000Z 26.0N 54.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 04/1200Z 28.0N 55.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 05/1200Z 30.0N 56.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 06/1200Z 33.0N 57.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 07/1200Z 36.0N 58.0W 50 KT |
