Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #43736 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 02.Sep.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2005 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE ITS SATELLITE PRESENTATION. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR BUT THE OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING PRIMARILY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. T-NUMBERS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES ARE 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS. SINCE MARIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE UPPER-LOW AND OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES... AND NOW THAT SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS BOTH FORECAST MARIA TO BE A HURRICANE WITH 85 KNOTS...I AM CONFIDENT IN BRINGING THE WINDS UP A LITTLE BIT MORE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY WHEN THE GFS DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE SOON. IT APPEARS THAT MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS...TRAPPED IN BETWEEN A DEVELOPING HIGH TO THE EAST AND THE WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE UPPER-LOW WEAKENS...MARIA SHOULD TURN MORE TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A NEW DEVELOPING TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED INDICATING A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 22.0N 50.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 23.3N 52.0W 55 KT 24HR VT 03/1800Z 25.5N 53.3W 65 KT 36HR VT 04/0600Z 28.0N 54.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 04/1800Z 30.0N 55.4W 65 KT 72HR VT 05/1800Z 32.5N 56.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 06/1800Z 34.0N 57.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 07/1800Z 36.0N 58.0W 65 KT |
