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| #437381 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:43 AM 29.Jun.2011) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011 100 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2011 ...ARLENE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 94.5W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ENE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO BAHIA ALGODONES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM ...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS...VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN |
