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| #437708 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 30.Jun.2011) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011 1000 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011 ...CENTER OF ARLENE NOW INLAND JUST WEST OF CABO ROJO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 97.7W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNW OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA TO LA CRUZ TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA PESCA MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO PALMA SOLA MEXICO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.7 WEST. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO BY FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM MAINLY OVER WATER TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE MEXICAN AUTOMATED STATION AT ISLA LOBOS REPORTED 10-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF 42 MPH... 69 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 56 MPH...90 KM/H...AS THE CENTER OF ARLENE PASSED JUST NORTH OF THE STATION. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND THROUGH PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO TODAY. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF CABO ROJO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/BERG |
