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| #43801 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 AM 03.Sep.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT SEP 03 2005 MARIA IS GENERATING A MASS OF CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C NEAR OR NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...ALTHOUGH JUST HOW FAR NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO CIRRUS OBSCURING THE CENTER AND NO RECENT MICROWAVE DATA. THE STORM HAS FAIR CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE. THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/11...UNCERTAIN MAINLY BECAUSE THE SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST A FASTER MOTION. MARIA IS BETWEEN THE LOW/MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A COMPLEX DEEP LAYER TROUGH TO THE WEST. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD MOVE THE STORM GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 72 HR AS INDICATED BY ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THERE IS A RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS OF HOW MARIA WILL INTERACT WITH THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GFS LOSES THE STORM...WHILE THE UKMET MAKES IT LARGE AND STRONGER WHILE DRIFTING EASTWARD...AND THE GFDL RACES IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE SPREAD...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A SLOW NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 72 HR IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MARIA IS DEVELOPING SOME ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...AND IS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR FOR 48 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL STRENGTHEN THE STORM TO 70 KT IN 48 HR AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN SHIPS AND THE GFDL. AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUALLY COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 23.4N 52.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 24.6N 53.6W 50 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 26.6N 54.8W 60 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 28.4N 55.7W 65 KT 48HR VT 05/0600Z 30.2N 56.5W 70 KT 72HR VT 06/0600Z 33.0N 57.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 07/0600Z 34.5N 57.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 08/0600Z 36.0N 56.5W 65 KT |
