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| #4386 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 AM 12.Aug.2004) TCMAT3 HURRICANE CHARLEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032004 0900Z THU AUG 12 2004 AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO BONITA BEACH. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING ALL OF FLORIDA BAY. AT 5 AM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA... MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THIS WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING THIS MORNING. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 79.9W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 75SE 30SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 100SE 50SW 175NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 79.9W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 79.3W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 20.3N 81.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 30SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 23.3N 82.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.3N 83.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 30.5N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 40.0N 76.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 46.5N 67.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 79.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
