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| #43883 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 03.Sep.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2005 THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY. THE CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND LASTEST MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT MARIA IS DEVELOPING AN INNER CORE. OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN AVERAGING AROUND 4.2 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND A WARM OCEAN IS AHEAD OF MARIA...AND I CAN NOT IGNORE THE SHIPS...THE GFDL AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS WHICH BRING THE MARIA TO NEAR 100 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MARIA TO REACH AT LEAST 90 KNOTS AND THEN SHOWS A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 3 DAYS AS THE CIRCULATION APPROACHES COOLER WATERS. MARIA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. MARIA SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS MOTION IS CONTROLLED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE...AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST SINCE ALL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. ONCE MARIA REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERLIES AHEAD OF A TROUGH IT SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE SPEED OF THE CYCLONE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN BECAUSE ALL MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT SPEEDS. THERE IS A LARGE VARIATION IN THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AMONG MODELS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 26.1N 54.8W 60 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 27.8N 56.0W 70 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 30.0N 57.0W 80 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 32.0N 57.5W 90 KT 48HR VT 05/1800Z 34.0N 58.0W 90 KT 72HR VT 06/1800Z 36.0N 57.0W 90 KT 96HR VT 07/1800Z 39.0N 53.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 08/1800Z 41.0N 48.1W 65 KT |
