Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #44024 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 04.Sep.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 04 2005 AN EYE HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGES TODAY...AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS NOW SUPPORT 75-KT WINDS. SINCE THE HURRICANE HAS WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW...A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE...AND IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY. BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND...MARIA IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN TO AT LEAST CATEGORY 2 STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. I HAVE BLENDED THE SHIPS AND GFDL OUTPUT AS GUIDANCE FOR THE WIND SPEED FORECAST. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...SO WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO BE UNDERWAY BY THEN. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... MARIA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF MARIA WILL BE RATHER LARGE AND VIGOROUS FOR A WHILE. THE HURRICANE HAS MOVED A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 340/12...PERHAPS 13 KT IN THE SHORTER TERM. THE GENERAL TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME. A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 70W WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED NEAR THE LONGITUDE OF MARIA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN NORTHWARD...AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. IN SPITE OF THE FASTER INITIAL MOTION...THE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SLOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 30.3N 56.1W 75 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 31.7N 56.5W 85 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 33.3N 56.5W 90 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 34.7N 55.9W 90 KT 48HR VT 06/1800Z 35.8N 54.9W 80 KT 72HR VT 07/1800Z 38.5N 51.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 08/1800Z 41.0N 46.0W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 09/1800Z 43.5N 40.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
