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| #44090 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 05.Sep.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON SEP 05 2005 MARIA'S CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY...EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE EYE HAS ALSO BECOME MUCH MORE DISTINCT IN INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. BOTH TAFB AND SAB CAME IN WITH AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5/77KT...AND RAW ODT NUMBERS ARE NOW AS HIGH AS T4.9/87 KT. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS BEING CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/09. MARIA BRIEFLY SLOWED TO ABOUT 5 KT BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z...BUT IT APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A FASTER FORWARD SPEED OF 9 KT AS IT NEARS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS... AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IN 24 HOURS. BY 48-72 HOURS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE MARIA RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER COOLER WATER WHERE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE DAY 4-5 TIME PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS STRETCHED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST...BUT AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL EXISTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ONE APPEARS TO BE FORMING TO THE NORTH. THIS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. BY 36 HOURS...THOUGH ...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING UNTIL THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO OR MERGES WITH A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0900Z 31.3N 57.0W 80 KT 12HR VT 05/1800Z 32.7N 57.0W 85 KT 24HR VT 06/0600Z 34.4N 56.2W 90 KT 36HR VT 06/1800Z 36.0N 54.8W 85 KT 48HR VT 07/0600Z 37.3N 52.9W 75 KT 72HR VT 08/0600Z 39.3N 49.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 09/0600Z 41.5N 43.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 10/0600Z 44.5N 36.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
