Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #44127 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:31 AM 05.Sep.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON SEP 05 2005 ALTHOUGH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE STILL 4.5 AT 12Z...THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT SINCE THEN... WITH A RATHER SYMMETRIC RING OF SURROUNDING COLD CLOUD TOPS. RECENT OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE NEAR 4.8...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KT. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EVIDENT...PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR STARTS TO INFLUENCE MARIA...WITHIN 1-2 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN SHOWN BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE PERIOD...AFTER MARIA MOVES NORTH OF 40N LATITUDE...THE GFS SHOWS THE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE. MARIA IS LIKELY TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...BUT GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT ITS EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE FOR A WHILE. MARIA HAS SLOWED WHILE TURNING TO THE NORTH...AND THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/7. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE HURRICANE...AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MARIA NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PICK UP THE CYCLONE...THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH ACCELERATION UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT SLIGHTLY LEFT OT THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 31.8N 56.7W 85 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 33.0N 56.5W 90 KT 24HR VT 06/1200Z 34.4N 55.6W 90 KT 36HR VT 07/0000Z 35.8N 54.3W 85 KT 48HR VT 07/1200Z 37.0N 52.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 08/1200Z 39.0N 48.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 09/1200Z 42.0N 41.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 10/1200Z 46.0N 33.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
