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| #44178 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 05.Sep.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2005 THE HURRICANE HAS INTENSIFIED A LITTLE MORE DURING THE DAY. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB NOW GIVE A WIND SPEED OF 90 KT. AN EXCELLENT TRMM OVERPASS FROM 1556Z SHOWED THAT A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL STRUCTURE WAS DEVELOPING....SO THE STRENGTH WILL PROBABLY FLUCTUATE UP OR DOWN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BEYOND THAT TIME...A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST...WHICH IS LIKELY TO BRING ABOUT A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. BY 4 DAYS OR SOONER...GLOBAL MODEL SIMULATIONS SHOW MARIA TRANSFORMING INTO A LARGE AND STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM. THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED SOMEWHAT AT 4 AND 5 DAYS AND THIS IS PROBABLY A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST. MARIA IS MOVING NORTHWARD...360/8. THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM EARLIER ADVISORIES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES AND A CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK FORECAST IN THIS ADVISORY IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. IT IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/2100Z 32.6N 56.7W 90 KT 12HR VT 06/0600Z 33.6N 56.0W 90 KT 24HR VT 06/1800Z 34.9N 55.0W 90 KT 36HR VT 07/0600Z 36.3N 53.4W 85 KT 48HR VT 07/1800Z 37.4N 51.3W 75 KT 72HR VT 08/1800Z 40.0N 46.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 09/1800Z 43.0N 39.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 10/1800Z 48.0N 33.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
