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| #44220 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:05 PM 05.Sep.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2005 THE EYE APPEARS A LITTLE LESS RAGGED THAN A FEW HOURS AGO AND THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT MORE SYMMETRIC ABOUT THE EYE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 00Z WERE T5.5/102 KT FROM TAFB AND T5.0/90 KT FROM SAB... WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS ARE NEAR 100 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 100 KT... MAKING MARIA A MAJOR HURRICANE. MARIA HAS 24 HOURS OR LESS TO REMAIN WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR MAINTAINING THE CURRENT INTENSITY. INCREASING SHEAR DUE TO APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. MARIA SHOULD REACH MUCH COOLER WATERS AT ABOUT 72 HOURS AND THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. MARIA HAS SLOWED DOWN... WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 010/5... AND THE SHORTER TERM MOTION MIGHT BE EVEN A LITTLE SLOWER. SINCE THE MID TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA HAS JUST ABOUT REACHED THE LONGITUDE OF MARIA... THE HURRICANE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND ACCELERATE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... ONLY A LITTLE BEHIND IT DUE TO THE SLOWER INITIAL MOTION. THE FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND IS ALSO A BLEND BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND GFDL AND THE SLOWER AND MORE NORTHWARD NOGAPS AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 32.9N 56.5W 100 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 34.0N 55.8W 100 KT 24HR VT 07/0000Z 35.3N 54.4W 90 KT 36HR VT 07/1200Z 36.6N 52.7W 85 KT 48HR VT 08/0000Z 37.8N 50.3W 75 KT 72HR VT 09/0000Z 40.5N 45.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 10/0000Z 44.0N 38.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 11/0000Z 49.5N 32.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
