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| #442442 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 17.Jul.2011) TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011 0300 UTC MON JUL 18 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 78.0W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 145 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 78.0W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 78.1W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 27.7N 77.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 28.5N 77.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 29.7N 76.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 30.7N 75.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 32.5N 71.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 34.5N 65.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 36.5N 58.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 78.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BERG |
