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| #442506 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 18.Jul.2011) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BRET ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011 500 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2011 ...BRET CENTERED JUST NORTHWEST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND...EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.2N 77.7W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.7 WEST. BRET IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BRET WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TODAY. DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...BRET COULD PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING OR IMMINENT IN THE WARNING AREA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS BRET BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. SURF...LOCALLY HIGH SURF CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG NORTHERN AND WESTERN FACING BEACHES IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THROUGH TODAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
