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| #44265 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 06.Sep.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 IT APPEARS THAT MARIA PEAKED IN INTENSITY ABOUT 6 HOURS AGO. THE NOW IS HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE RAGGED AND OPEN TO THE WEST...AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE...BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IS NOW ENTERING THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. SATELLITE INTENSITY CURRENT ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND 90 KT FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. MARIA IS MOVING AT 020/06. THE NARROW RIDGE MID-LEVEL TO NORTH OF MARIA IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY MOVE A LITTLE FASTER. BEYOND 24 HOURS...AND APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO LIFT OUT MARIA TO THE NORTHEAST AND RAPIDLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE OVER MUCH COOLER WATER BY 72 HOURS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT HIGH-LATITUDE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. DRY AIR...COOLER WATER...AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KT IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY TAKE ITS TOLL ON HURRICANE MARIA. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST UNTIL 72 HOURS...AT WHICH TIME INCREASED BAROCLINIC EFFECTS SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN A NEARLY STEADY INTENSITY FOR THEN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE MARIA. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 33.3N 56.4W 90 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 34.2N 55.5W 80 KT 24HR VT 07/0600Z 35.6N 53.9W 70 KT 36HR VT 07/1800Z 36.9N 52.1W 60 KT 48HR VT 08/0600Z 38.2N 49.8W 55 KT 72HR VT 09/0600Z 41.0N 44.3W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 10/0600Z 45.0N 38.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 11/0600Z 50.0N 31.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
