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| #442780 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 AM 19.Jul.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011 1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011 DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN RATHER MEAGER IN ASSOCIATION WITH BRET THIS MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT RECENTLY THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE STORM IS EXPOSED NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SMALL DENSE OVERCAST. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALTHOUGH THIS IS PROBABLY A GENEROUS ESTIMATE. BRET IS BEING IMPACTED BY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND IS ENTRAINING RATHER DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR. THE ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN HOSTILE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND DISSIPATION AFTER 72 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 030/7. VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BRET SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES LATER ON. THE FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...ASSUMING BRET SURVIVES THAT LONG. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 29.9N 75.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 30.6N 75.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 31.6N 73.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 32.9N 72.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 34.3N 70.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 37.5N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
