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| #442850 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 19.Jul.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011 500 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011 BRET HAS A DISHEVELED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE PICTURES...WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-CLOUD CENTER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF A SMALL PATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS. IN SPITE OF THIS...DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER ESTIMATE OF INTENSITY WAS NOT A GENEROUS ONE AND THE STORM IS MAINTAINING STRENGTH...FOR NOW. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 52 KT AND EVEN HIGHER SURFACE WINDS WERE SHOWN BY THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ON BOARD THE AIRCRAFT. HOWEVER THE SFMR WINDS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT INFLATED BY AN ACCOMPANYING SPIKE OF HEAVY RAIN. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KT. STRONG NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ALONG WITH DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A TOLL ON BRET AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO DISSIPATION AFTER 3 DAYS. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 035/7. BRET IS MOVING AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE AND SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME ACCELERATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 30.4N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 31.1N 74.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 32.4N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 33.7N 71.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 35.1N 69.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 38.5N 65.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
