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| #44298 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 AM 06.Sep.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 MARIA HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING THIS MORNING. AN EYE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES. THE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN EROSION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE...INDICATIVE OF A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR. SINCE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER MARIA...AND THE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT GETTING ANY WARMER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...MARIA IS PREDICTED TO TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG BAROCLINIC CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN A FEW DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING ITS IDENTITY THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE TRACK HAS BENT TO THE RIGHT SOMEWHAT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 045/6. THE HURRICANE IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD HIGHER LATITUDES...THE STEERING CURRENT INCREASES. THEREFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...ON A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD HEADING...IS CALLED FOR. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 33.8N 55.6W 85 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 34.5N 54.6W 75 KT 24HR VT 07/1200Z 35.9N 52.8W 65 KT 36HR VT 08/0000Z 37.4N 50.8W 60 KT 48HR VT 08/1200Z 38.8N 48.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 09/1200Z 41.5N 43.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 10/1200Z 45.5N 36.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 11/1200Z 51.0N 29.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
