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| #442991 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 AM 20.Jul.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011 500 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2011 ALTHOUGH BRET IS ONLY PRODUCING A SMALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING...DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE STORM HAS NOT WEAKENED YET. FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ...SFMR WINDS...AND DROPSONDE DATA ALL SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS STILL FORECAST AS THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HOSTILE WITH NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR NEAR 30 KT AND RATHER DRY MID-LEVEL AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE CYCLONE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER AND CALLS FOR BRET TO DISSIPATE BY DAY 3...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT BRET HAS TURNED A BIT TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/06. A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE 34-KT WIND AND 12-FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND ALTIMETER DATA...RESPECTIVELY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 31.1N 74.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 31.9N 73.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 33.2N 71.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 34.6N 70.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 36.2N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
