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| #44301 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 AM 06.Sep.2005) TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005 1500Z TUE SEP 06 2005 AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE INCLUDING MERRITT ISLAND...AND THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 78.6W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 78.6W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 78.5W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 27.0N 79.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 27.6N 79.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 28.0N 79.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 28.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 29.0N 80.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 29.5N 81.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 30.5N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 78.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA |
