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| #443039 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 20.Jul.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011 1100 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2011 WHILE THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS THAT OF A SHEARED CYCLONE...CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF BRET THIS MORNING. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST ABOUT 20 KT OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...WHICH IS A LITTLE LESS THEN EARLIER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND DATA FROM THE PREVIOUS AIRCRAFT MISSION. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE BRET THIS AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/8. BRET IS EMBEDDED IN LOW/MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AGAIN AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WHILE THE SHEAR HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST IT TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER ABOUT 12 HR. IN ADDITION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DRY AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD BRET. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD WEAKEN THE STORM AND LEAD TO ITS DISSIPATION IN 48-72 HR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 31.8N 73.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 32.5N 72.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 33.8N 71.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 35.4N 69.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 37.0N 66.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
