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| #44310 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 AM 06.Sep.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 SATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CIRCULATION AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO SOME SHEAR. HOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SYSTEM...REDUCING THE SHEAR...AND THE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS FOR 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT. THE DEPRESSION IS IN FORMATIVE STAGE AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NEARLY STATIONARY. STEERING CURRENTS ARE VERY WEAK SO LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED BUT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST VERY CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND BE NEAR THE EAST COST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AS THE CYCLONE MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 26.5N 78.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 27.0N 79.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 07/1200Z 27.6N 79.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 08/0000Z 28.0N 79.7W 50 KT 48HR VT 08/1200Z 28.5N 80.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 09/1200Z 29.0N 80.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 10/1200Z 29.5N 81.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 11/1200Z 30.5N 82.0W 40 KT...INLAND |
