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| #443107 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 20.Jul.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011 500 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2011 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT BRET HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE. THE MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 45 KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1005 MB ON BOTH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS AND DATA FROM A 1521 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS STILL GENERATING CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CENTER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL WEAKENING AS DRY MID/UPPER-LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE CYCLONE FROM THE NORTHWEST. BRET IS NOW FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HR AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 72 HR. AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER JOGGED TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL MOTION REMAINS GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD...050/7. BRET REMAINS EMBEDDED IN LOW/MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE EAST BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 31.9N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 32.7N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 34.3N 70.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 35.9N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 37.8N 64.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
