Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #44312 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 06.Sep.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH NATE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SO NATE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL TRENDS. NATE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS SO LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...NATE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AS A HIGH DEVELOPS EAST OF NATE. BEYOND 48 HOURS...NATE IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MID LATITUDE TROUGH. NATE SHOULD THEN TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. IT APPEARS THAT BERMUDA WILL BE NEAR THE FORECAST PATH OF NATE. THEREFORE...ALL INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 28.7N 66.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 28.8N 66.9W 60 KT 24HR VT 07/1200Z 29.0N 67.2W 70 KT 36HR VT 08/0000Z 29.5N 67.5W 80 KT 48HR VT 08/1200Z 30.5N 67.5W 80 KT 72HR VT 09/1200Z 32.5N 64.5W 80 KT 96HR VT 10/1200Z 37.0N 53.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 11/1200Z 42.5N 41.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
