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| #443176 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 PM 20.Jul.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011 1100 PM AST WED JUL 20 2011 FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BRET HAS LOST MUCH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF ITS EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND NOW ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN. OBJECTIVE 3-HOUR ADT NUMBERS ARE CURRENTLY T2.6...AND THE RAW NUMBERS ARE MUCH LOWER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 35 KT. NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER BRET IS BRUTAL. THE SHIPS/LGEM DIAGNOSTICS SHOW ABOUT 30-35 KT OF SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM...AND THESE VALUES COULD INCREASE FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE CYCLONE...BRET WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT DAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY MIRRORS THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND BRET COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. DISSIPATION IS NOW EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS. AFTER JOGGING TO THE EAST EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...BRET IS NOW WOBBLING A BIT TO THE NORTH. THE AVERAGE MOTION REMAINS NORTHEASTWARD WITH A BIT OF AN ACCELERATION AT 045/8. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING ACCELERATION WITHIN FASTER MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLIES...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO BE CLOSE TO THE FASTER-MOVING GFS AND ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 32.8N 72.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 33.9N 70.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 35.5N 68.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 37.2N 65.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG |
