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| #443273 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 21.Jul.2011) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011 500 AM AST THU JUL 21 2011 CINDY HAS DEVELOPED A DOUGHNUT HOLE IN THE INNER CORE CONVECTION. WHILE I AM NOT READY TO CALL THIS AN EYE FEATURE...IT DOES SUPPORT INCREASING THE WIND SPEEDS. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ONLY SUPPORT 35 KT...GRADIENT WIND COMPUTATIONS USING THE CENTRAL PRESSURE AND NEARBY SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS OF 1022-1023 MB IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KT. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045-24. CINDY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVE QUICKLY OVER MUCH COLDER WATER IN ABOUT 124 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR TERM AS CINDY REMAINS OVER SSTS OF AT LEAST 24C. BY 24 HOURS...HOWEVER... SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COLDER WATER. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS DUE TO COLD WATER AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 38.3N 49.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 40.7N 45.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 43.8N 40.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 22/1800Z 46.8N 34.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 23/0600Z 50.0N 27.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
