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| #443323 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 21.Jul.2011) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011 1100 AM AST THU JUL 21 2011 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CINDY HAS SEVERAL RAGGED CONVECTIVE BANDS AROUND THE CENTER THIS MORNING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT FROM TAFB AND REMAIN 35 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE LAST 24 HR...WITH GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/25. CINDY IS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE MAIN BAND OF THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND STEER CINDY GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD FOR 36 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE EAST- NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BEFORE THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE LEFT SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AS WELL. CINDY IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GULF STREAM AND SHOULD SOON ENCOUNTER STEADILY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS AND THE ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MOSTLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING FOR CINDY TO DISSIPATE BY THE 72 HR POINT. ONE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT IS TO DELAY THE COMPLETION OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 12 HR BASED ON THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 40.3N 47.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 42.7N 43.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 45.9N 38.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 49.8N 32.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 23/1200Z 52.0N 26.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
