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| #44353 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:28 PM 06.Sep.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE HURRICANE...AND THE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY WEAKENING. CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 70 KT WHICH IS BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION... ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMMS...AND GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PERSIST...SO FURTHER WEAKENING...AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IS LIKELY. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS HOWEVER...NWP MODELS DEPICT THE SYSTEM AS A STRONG CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... INDICATING THAT MARIA WILL SOON BEGIN TO TAP ENERGY FROM BAROCLINIC SOURCES. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS LEVELLED OFF AT 55 KT TO REFLECT THE TRANSITION TO A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL STORM. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 045/6. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE...OR IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. THE HURRICANE IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A BROAD MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS MARIA MOVES INTO A STRONGER STEERING FLOW AT HIGHER LATITUDES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK PREDICTED BY THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS METHOD...CONU. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2100Z 34.3N 55.1W 70 KT 12HR VT 07/0600Z 35.1N 53.9W 70 KT 24HR VT 07/1800Z 36.5N 52.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 08/0600Z 37.8N 50.1W 60 KT 48HR VT 08/1800Z 39.3N 48.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 09/1800Z 42.5N 43.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 10/1800Z 46.0N 37.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 11/1800Z 51.0N 31.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
