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| #443558 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 AM 22.Jul.2011) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011 500 AM AST FRI JUL 22 2011 CINDY HAS CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A TIGHTLY CURVED BAND OF MODEST CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER RAGGED IN APPEARANCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB...55 KT FROM SAB...AND 49 KT FROM THE MOST RECENT CIRA-AMSU OVERPASS. CINDY IS ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 050/25. THE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL TAKE THE CYCLONE OVER MUCH COLDER WATER THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS FASTER AND TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CINDY IS ALREADY OVER 20C SSTS...AND ONLY COLDER WATER LIES AHEAD OF IT. AS A RESULT...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER...AND DISSIPATE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE BRITISH ISLES BY 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS. THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON A 37-KT WIND REPORT FROM SHIP KABL AT 06Z. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 44.5N 39.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 46.7N 35.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 50.0N 29.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/1800Z 52.7N 21.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
