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| #44357 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:31 PM 06.Sep.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 ALTHOUGH MICROWAVE PASSES FROM THIS MORNING SUGGESTED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER DETERMINED FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY...VISIBLE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO GIVE THE IMPRESSION OF A WELL-ORGANIZED CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 50 KT. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS WELL-ESTABLISHED DIRECTLY OVER NATE...AND THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON WHY THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT INTENSIFY BEFORE THE WIND SHEAR INCREASES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST BLENDS THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. NATE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...CAUGHT BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF MARIA TO THE NORTHEAST AND DEPRESSION SIXTEEN TO THE WEST...AND UNDERNEATH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN RELATIVELY LITTLE MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN SUGGESTING THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL COLLAPSE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. THIS TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NATE NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE RELATIVELY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL MODELS. THERE IS SOME SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS IN THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING VIRTUALLY NO WESTWARD MOTION BEFORE RECURVATURE WHILE THE GFS AND GFDL TAKE THE SYSTEM SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE TURNING. THIS LATTER SCENARIO TAKES THE CYCLONE CLOSER TO BERMUDA. NATE IS EXPECTED TO PASS FAIRLY CLOSE TO BERMUDA AS A HURRICANE...BUT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO TELL AT THIS POINT WHETHER IT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2100Z 28.7N 66.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 07/0600Z 28.8N 67.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 07/1800Z 29.2N 67.4W 70 KT 36HR VT 08/0600Z 29.7N 67.5W 80 KT 48HR VT 08/1800Z 31.0N 66.5W 80 KT 72HR VT 09/1800Z 33.5N 61.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 10/1800Z 37.0N 52.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 11/1800Z 43.0N 38.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
