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| #44360 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 06.Sep.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS INDICATED BY T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WHICH HAVE REMAINED AT 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SHOW THAT PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1008 MB AND THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED BUT BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS NORTH OF THE CENTER DUE TO A LITTLE BIT OF SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CYCLONE...AND BECAUSE THE OCEAN IS WARM ALONG THE FORECAST PATH A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT. I AM A LITTLE BIT UNCOMFORTABLE BRINGING THE INTENSITY UP FARTHER WHEN THE GFDL DOES NOT STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. STEERING CURRENTS ARE VERY WEAK AND ONLY A SMALL NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS AS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. BEYOND 3 DAYS...THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE WILL BYPASS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND WILL NOT PICK IT UP...WHILE THE UK MODEL SHOWS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TAKING THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. IN GENERAL...SOME MODELS SHOW TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OTHERS SHOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA SIMILAR TO THE GFS SOLUTION. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2100Z 26.7N 78.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 07/0600Z 27.2N 78.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 07/1800Z 27.7N 79.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 08/0600Z 28.1N 79.6W 50 KT 48HR VT 08/1800Z 28.7N 80.2W 60 KT 72HR VT 09/1800Z 29.5N 81.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 10/1800Z 30.0N 81.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 11/1800Z 30.5N 82.5W 35 KT...INLAND |
