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| #443842 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 22.Jul.2011) TCDAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011 1100 PM AST FRI JUL 22 2011 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CINDY HAS EVAPORATED AND THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ILL DEFINED. AN EARLIER 1950 UTC NRL WINDSAT OVERPASS INDICATED A FEW BELIEVABLE 35 KT WINDS BUT DID NOT SHOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION...INDICATING ONLY A SHARP TROUGH. THE METEOSAT 9 SHORT WAVE INFRARED IMAGERY...HOWEVER...SUGGESTS THAT A SMALL CLOSED CIRCULATION MAY STILL EXIST. IN ANY EVENT...CINDY LACKS THE CONVECTION REQUIRED OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT BASED ON THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE SCATTEROMETER PASS. STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR AND COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVENT THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM REDEVELOPING ORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND ULTIMATELY SHOULD CAUSE DISSIPATION IN 24 HOURS OR LESS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 050/29...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST UNTIL DISSIPATION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE METEO FRANCE MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 49.2N 31.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP 12H 23/1200Z 51.7N 25.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN |
