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| #44413 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 06.Sep.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 AN EARLIER SSMI OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER WAS SITUATED ABOUT 28 NM FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTED THAT A BANDING EYE FEATURE MAY BE DEVELOPING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AFWA AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 55 KT...WHILE THE TAFB ESTIMATE CAME IN AT 65 KT. BASED ON THE INCREASE OF THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND THE IMPROVED INNER CORE DEPICTED IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 55 KT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND BLENDS THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. NATE IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF MARIA AND DEPRESSION SIXTEEN APPEAR TO BE INFLUENCING NATE'S LACK OF MOTION. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND DOES NOT APPEAR TO AFFECTING THE STEERING FLOW TO THE NORTH OF NATE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD HOLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS RESULTING IN RELATIVELY LITTLE MOTION...POSSIBLY A SLIGHT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE WITH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NATE NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED OFF THE CONU CONSENSUS. NATE IS EXPECTED TO PASS FAIRLY CLOSE TO BERMUDA AS A HURRICANE...WHETHER IT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE ISLAND REMAINS TO BE SEEN. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0300Z 28.8N 66.3W 55 KT 12HR VT 07/1200Z 29.0N 66.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 08/0000Z 29.6N 66.7W 70 KT 36HR VT 08/1200Z 30.5N 66.0W 80 KT 48HR VT 09/0000Z 31.8N 64.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 10/0000Z 35.0N 57.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 11/0000Z 38.5N 46.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/0000Z 44.0N 33.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
