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| #44416 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:20 PM 06.Sep.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005 WESTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON MARIA...AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE WEAKENING PRIMARY CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT...AND BASED ON THE WEAKER SATELLITE SIGNATURE SINCE 00Z THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 60 KT. MARIA SHOULD WEAKEN A LITTLE FURTHER BEFORE IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THEN CONTINUE AS A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM THROUGH AT LEAST 120 HR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/7. MARIA IS NOW EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE STORM SHOULD GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE FASTER THAN...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODEL CONU. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0300Z 34.7N 54.2W 60 KT 12HR VT 07/1200Z 35.7N 52.9W 55 KT 24HR VT 08/0000Z 37.1N 51.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 08/1200Z 38.5N 48.9W 55 KT 48HR VT 09/0000Z 40.1N 46.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 10/0000Z 44.0N 41.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/0000Z 49.0N 34.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/0000Z 53.5N 26.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
