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| #44453 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 AM 07.Sep.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 MICROWAVE AND INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATE A POORLY DEFINED...LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE WEAKENING CONVECTION. TAFB AND SAB DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN TO 45 KT...AND BASED ON THE RECENT IMAGERY DEPICTING FURTHER SEPARATION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER FROM THE CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER BEFORE IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THEN CONTINUE AS A LARGE AND STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING THE 06/2124Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/9. MARIA IS MOVING WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE MORE NORTHEASTWARD WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT JUST TO THE LEFT...FOLLOWING THE CONU CONSENSUS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 35.2N 53.0W 55 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 36.0N 51.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 08/0600Z 37.2N 49.7W 50 KT 36HR VT 08/1800Z 38.6N 47.3W 50 KT 48HR VT 09/0600Z 40.4N 45.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 10/0600Z 45.0N 39.9W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/0600Z 50.0N 33.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/0600Z 55.0N 27.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
