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| #4446 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 AM 12.Aug.2004) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004 RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF BONNIE REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. THE CENTER PASSED OVER OR NEAR THE NOAA BUOY 42039 EARLIER TODAY PRODUCING GUSTS TO 47 KNOTS AN A 1002.7 MB PRESSURE. SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING ELONGATED AND IT IS IS BEGINNING TO TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL. A PORTION OF THE BROAD CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE CENTER IS MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...ABOUT 24 KNOTS. ONCE THE CENTER IS COMPLETELY INLAND...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AND BONNIE SHOULD BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO AS IT MOVES QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 29.5N 85.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 32.5N 82.5W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 13/1200Z 37.5N 78.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 14/0000Z 44.0N 73.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 14/1200Z 50.0N 68.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
