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| #44464 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:17 AM 07.Sep.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 MICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE DATA INDICATE NATE HAS MOVED LITTLE ...BUT MAY BE STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF A SLOW NORTHWEST OR NORTHWARD DRIFT. A PARTIAL EYE HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY...SO THE INTENSITY WAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 60 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION GUESSTIMATE IS 315/02...BUT NATE COULD BE QUASI-STATIONARY OR DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF NATE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITHIN 24 HOURS BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD AND THEN ACCELERATE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD BY 36 HOURS AS SRONMG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH...OR LEFT...OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE UKMET'S STRONG FAST AND RIGHT BIAS FROM THE OUTSET. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...NATE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER GIVEN THAT AN EYE FEATURE IS TRYING TO FORM AND THAT NATE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR OF 35-45 KT SHOULD INDUCE STEADY AND POSSIBLY EVEN RAPID WEAKENING. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 28.8N 66.5W 60 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 29.2N 66.7W 65 KT 24HR VT 08/0600Z 30.1N 66.2W 70 KT 36HR VT 08/1800Z 31.6N 64.7W 80 KT...NEAR BERMUDA 48HR VT 09/0600Z 33.0N 61.5W 80 KT 72HR VT 10/0600Z 36.1N 53.0W 75 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/0600Z 39.5N 42.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/0600Z 44.0N 29.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
