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| #44509 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 07.Sep.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE IS DEEP CONVECTION BUT STILL NORTH OF THE CENTER...WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BANDS AND FAIR OUTFLOW. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...AND BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK OPHELIA LATER THIS MORNING. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS AND A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SO STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. SINCE THE GFS BRINGS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER OPHELIA BY THE END OR THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LEVELED OFF BETWEEN 65 AND 70 KNOTS. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. OPHELIA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND IT APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 3 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT OPHELIA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE UNITED STATES SOUTHEAST COAST...RESULTING IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS ARE IN GREAT DISAGREEMENT MAKING THE FORECAST HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. BOTH THE GFDL AND THE ECMWF BRING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS PROBABLY THE WORSE CASE SCENARIO FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE OTHER MODELS KEEP OFELIA LOOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE BEST OPTION IN THESE CASES OF LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENT IS TO FORECAST LITTLE MOTION. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD DRIFT BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT OPHELIA WILL LIKELY MEANDER JUST OFF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTS FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. ALL INTERESTS IN NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING CYCLONE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 28.8N 79.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 29.2N 79.8W 50 KT 24HR VT 08/1200Z 29.5N 80.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 09/0000Z 29.8N 80.2W 60 KT 48HR VT 09/1200Z 30.0N 80.3W 60 KT 72HR VT 10/1200Z 30.5N 80.3W 65 KT 96HR VT 11/1200Z 30.5N 80.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 12/1200Z 30.5N 80.0W 70 KT |
