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| #445480 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 28.Jul.2011) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011 1000 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011 BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES HAVE BEEN INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM DON AND FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE HAD JOGGED TO THE WEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THAT THE CYCLONE IS A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURES REPORTED BY NOAA AND AIR FORCE PLANE EARLIER THIS EVENING WERE 996 AND 998 RESPECTIVELY. MORE RECENTLY A HIGHER PRESSURE WAS REPORTED BUT THE DROPSONDE DID NOT HIT THE VERY SMALL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 AND 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THE INITIAL HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS PRIMARILY BASED ON A BELIEVABLE 43-KNOT SFMR REPORT. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY SHEAR AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL TILTED SOUTHWARD WITH HEIGHT AS REPORTED BY BOTH PLANES. SINCE NO SIGNIFICANT DECREASE OF THE SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED AND THE CYCLONE IS INTERACTING WITH DRY AIR OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL. IN FACT NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST IMPORTANT CHANGES IN INTENSITY. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...DON HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KNOTS. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES HAS BEEN CONTROLLING THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE. SINCE THIS HIGH IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST...A CONTINUATION OF A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT AND THIS DUE TO THE INITIAL WESTWARD JOG AND NOT DUE TO ANY IMPORTANT CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN. GIVEN THE SMALL SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. INTERESTS IN EXTREME NORTHEAST MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DON. AN UNEXPECTED SMALL DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE TRACK COULD NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF WARNINGS FOR THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 24.7N 92.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 25.5N 94.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 26.6N 96.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 27.5N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/0000Z 28.5N 101.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
